Developing Flood Forecasting Systems: Examples from the Uk, Europe, and Pakistan

Provision of early flood warning is an important strategy in reducing flood damage and loss of life. To increase warning lead-time and mitigate impacts more efficiently, flood forecasting systems are increasingly becoming an essential step in the warning process. Development of these has traditionally been initiated by local authorities, and often these systems were no more than a dedicated user interface around hydrological and hydraulic models. Although these have often been proven to be suitable for purpose, the disadvantage of these often bespoke developments is that these are somewhat inflexible to change. Advances in weather forecasting, radar data and on-line meteorological and hydrological data collection, and progress in hydrological and hydraulic models, are requiring an increasing need in developing flood forecasting systems that are flexible to change in the data and models used. In this paper an open shell flood forecasting system is presented that allows for flexible adaptation to changing requirements in terms of data and models, without requiring complete replacement of the forecasting system, and the organisational changes this may require. The shell provides essential generic functionality for handling real-time data, data assimilation and managing forecast runs, while also allowing integration of forecasting modules through an open (XML based) interface. The system has been applied in numerous operational flood forecasting systems. This paper briefly discusses the philosophy and structure of the system, and through its application in the UK, mainland Europe, and Pakistan, the open systems approach is illustrated.